腾讯股价波动带来投资机遇-澳门太阳网

High expectations make for volatile shares, and for opportunity. The Chinese internet group Tencent released first-quarter results on Wednesday. Sales and profits beat analysts’ targets by 5 per cent. On Thursday, the stock dropped as much as 4 per cent before cooler traders pushed it back up.低预期造成股价波动，也带给机会。周三，中国互联网集团腾讯(Tencent)发布了第一季度财报。销售额和利润皆远超过分析师预期目标5%。

周四，腾讯股价一度暴跌4%，随后较耐心的交易员把股价新的推高。Tencent’s main businesses did well. Revenues from online games (more than half of the $5bn total) rose three-tenths year on year. More impressive: fees gathered from social networks, including China’s dominant chat app WeChat, grew nearly one half to $1.2bn — showing that the company is able to charge for add-ons and content.腾讯主要业务进展较好。

在线游戏收益（占到其50亿美元总收入的一半以上）同比快速增长30%。更加令人印象深刻印象的是：从社交网站，还包括中国占到主导地位的聊天App微信(WeChat)，缴纳的费用快速增长近50%，至12亿美元，指出该公司需要对可选服务和内容收费。Revenue growth from advertising was disappointing. Although up 73 per cent year on year, this was a marked slowdown from a more than doubling last quarter. Seasonality was partly to blame, but Tencent also said that brands are reluctant to commit to marketing spend against China’s uncertain economic outlook.广告收益快速增长数据令人沮丧。

尽管同比快速增长73%，但这与上季度同比快速增长一倍以上的数据比起显著上升。部分原因在于季节性，但是腾讯也回应，在中国经济前景不确认的情况下，各品牌不愿在市场营销上开支。This makes sense, but is likely to be a blip. China’s ad spending is still low: $77bn in 2015, according to GroupM, around half that of the US. With a long way to catch up, industry analysts expect China spending to grow 10 per cent this year, twice the global rate.这说道得合，但有可能只是继续的。中国广告开支水平依然较低：群邑(GroupM)数据表明，2015年中国广告开支为770亿美元，大约为美国的一半。

中国要跟上美国依然有很长的路要回头，在这种情况下，行业分析师预计中国今年广告开支将快速增长10%，是全球增长速度的两倍。Tencent, with 80 per cent of its ad take from mobile devices, is in a good position. By eMarketer’s bullish estimates, digital ad spending in 2016 could account for nearly one-third of the China total, implying nearly 60 per cent growth. True, Tencent’s ad take is growing faster than that, but with 2015 revenues of only $2.7bn, there is plenty of room to gain share.80%广告收益来自移动设备的腾讯正处于不利方位。据eMarketer的悲观估算，2016年数字广告方面的开支将占中国整体广告开支将近三分之一，这意味著近60%的快速增长。

到底，腾讯的广告收益增长速度更加慢，但是在2015年收入仅有为27亿美元的情况下，腾讯仍有相当大的空间取得更大的市场份额。Tencent’s real constraint may be its emphasis on user experience over revenues. It could be more aggressive, perhaps. But it is wise to prioritise users — some of whom are already objecting to cluttered accounts — rather than aggravate them with too many ads too soon. The company has a proven ability to grow in unexpected ways, and the shares’ volatility is likely to keep generating opportunities.腾讯确实的制约有可能在于，它对用户体验的侧重低于收益。

或许它可以多一些生意眼。但是优先考虑到用户（而不是过早放入过于多广告来触怒他们）是明智的——部分用户早已开始赞成乱七八糟的账户广告。腾讯享有早已获得检验的能力，需要以令人意想不到的方式构建快速增长，同时其股价的波动性可能会之后建构机会。

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